To assess the role of HDL (high-density lipoprotein)-mediated cholesterol mass efflux capacity (CMEC) in incident cardiovascular disease and carotid plaque progression.

We measured CMEC in 2 cohorts aged 45 to 84 years at baseline derived from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Cohort 1 comprised 465 cases with incident cardiovascular disease events during 10 years of follow-up and 465 age- and sex-matched controls; cohort 2 comprised 407 cases with progression of carotid plaque measured by ultrasonography at 2 exams >10 years and 407 similarly matched controls. Covariates and outcome events were ascertained according to the MESA protocol. CMEC level was modestly correlated with HDL cholesterol (R=0.13; P<0.001) but was not associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, alcohol use, smoking status, or statin use. Higher CMEC level was significantly associated with lower odds of cardiovascular disease (odds ratio, 0.82 per SD of CMEC [95% CI, 0.69–0.98; P=0.031] in the fully adjusted model) in cohort 1 but higher odds of carotid plaque progression (odds ratio, 1.24 per SD of CMEC [95% CI, 1.04–1.48; P=0.018] in the fully adjusted model) in cohort 2 but without dose-response effect. In subgroup analysis within cohort 1, higher CMEC was associated with lower risk of incident coronary heart disease events (odds ratio, 0.72 per SD of CMEC (95% CI, 0.5–0.91; P=0.007) while no association was found with stroke events.

These findings support a role for HDL-mediated cholesterol efflux in an atheroprotective mechanism for coronary heart disease but not stroke.